How to Read Election Night

More than 54 million Americans have already cast ballots in the midterm elections, about 8 million more than the total early vote in all of 2022, according to the University of Florida Election Lab’s tally, reported Sunday by USA Today. Beginning at 7 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, the shape of the next Congress will assemble hour by hour. Here is how to watch it.

The early numbers describe who has voted, not who will win. In the 27 states that report party registration, Democrats have turned out in higher numbers than Republicans; in the 14 states that report age, voters over 40 have cast more than 80 percent of early ballots; in the eight that report gender, women have outvoted men. Texas, Maine, Kansas, South Carolina and North Carolina are all running ahead of their 2022 early-vote totals, according to an Associated Press analysis. The surge says interest is high. It does not say which party will take Congress: early votes are counted first in some states and last in others, and both parties have changed their early-voting habits from one cycle to the next.

The hour-by-hour map

NPR’s hour-by-hour guide organizes the evening by each state’s final poll-closing time, all in Eastern Time; in states that span more than one time zone, counting runs until the last poll closes.

At 7 p.m., polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont. Georgia carries the early drama: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has led Republican Rep. Mike Collins in polls all fall, and the governor’s race between Republican nominee Rick Jackson and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is one of the most competitive in the South. South Carolina adds a surprise, an unexpectedly tight Senate race between appointed Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews. Georgia’s secretary of state says new laws require counties to report results within an hour of polls closing.

At 7:30, North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia close. North Carolina holds the Republican-held Senate seat seen as the Democrats’ most likely flip, where former Gov. Roy Cooper faces Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chairman. In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown are deadlocked, the first of seven tight Senate races that will define the chamber.

The 8 p.m. wave closes 17 states and Washington, D.C. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a difficult challenge from Democrat Troy Jackson. Pennsylvania has four competitive House races, three of them now leaning Democratic. Florida’s redrawn congressional map gets its first test, with seven competitive House seats. In New Hampshire, Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has widened his edge over former Republican Sen. John Sununu.

Arkansas closes at 8:30; watch the margin there, not the winner. Then comes 9 p.m., the night’s decisive hour, with 15 states and the four Senate races most likely to settle control of the chamber: Texas, where Democratic state Rep. James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton; Iowa, where Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek contest an open seat; Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is trying to hold off Democrat Adam Hamilton; and Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers remain in a toss-up. Arizona’s governor’s race, where Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs has tilted ahead of Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, closes with them.

At 10 p.m., watch Montana’s toss-up House race and Nevada’s toss-up race for governor. California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington close at 11 p.m.; California counts slowly, so its House races may not be called quickly. Alaska, one of two states using ranked-choice voting this year, finishes at 1 a.m.

Why the Senate may take longer

Do not expect a final call on the Senate before the night ends. The margins are tight, seven states are especially competitive, and two states, Maine and Alaska, use ranked-choice voting, which can prolong the count. Control of the House will likely become clear sooner and probably will not come down to a single seat; control of the Senate very well could. Counting could run for days or even weeks.

How big the night could get

The backdrop favors Democrats. President Trump’s approval rating stands lower than it did before the 2018 midterms, when Republicans lost more than 40 House seats, and below the levels Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton carried into their parties’ midterm losses, according to CNN’s race-by-race analysis. Polls in the campaign’s final days found Democrats showing strength in states Republicans have long dominated, including Texas, Ohio, Kansas and South Carolina.

But the battlefield sits on Republican-leaning terrain: in most of the states and districts both parties are fully contesting, Republican voters still outnumber Democrats. “The best news for our side is that the vaunted Republican surge at the end that many would have expected given all their money just hasn’t happened,” Paul Maslin, a longtime Democratic pollster, told CNN. Whether the Democrats’ narrow leads hold is the night’s real question.

So watch the early states for shape rather than verdicts. Strong Democratic margins in Georgia’s suburbs and northern Virginia would suggest a wave is building; a holding pattern through the 8 p.m. states would push the night toward the 9 p.m. Senate map. More than 54 million people have already had their say. On Tuesday, the rest of the country gets its turn.